More Ovoerconfidence

The problem is that the bad consequences of underconfidence and under-ambition are severe but subtle, whereas the bad consequences of overconfidence and wishful thinking are milder but more obvious. If you’re overconfident, you’ll try things that fail, and people will laugh at you. If you’re underconfident, you’ll avoid making risky bets, and miss out on the potential upside, but nobody will know for sure what you missed.

That means it’s always tempting to do what the low-info heuristic tells you and be less ambitious—but ultimately, that ends up being worse for the world.

Ben Kuhn reminds us that we should take bets more often and make use of our unique perspective and insight. Sure, maybe it won’t work out all the time or even often, but how else will you get better and grow, and what’s the harm in being wrong anyway?